1948年川西理塘 M7. 3地震地表破裂特征及Riedel剪切构造分析     

刘亢  李岩峰  郭辉文  张迎峰 《地质学报》2021,95(8):2346-2360

1948年川西理塘M7. 3地震是川滇菱形块体内部近一个世纪以来发生的震级最大的走滑型地震。在对此次同震地表破裂进行详细调查基础上,利用差分GPS对同震地表破裂带进行了精确测量与统计分析。结果揭示该地表破裂的现存长度为36 km,北端始于无量河以北,往东南沿藏坝盆地北东缘、德巫盆地东南缘,延伸至德巫乡北,分为南、北两段,而在交德附近存在约3 km长的地表破裂空区。对同震地表破裂的线密度和同震水平位错量进行分段统计后揭示,此次地震的宏观震中应位于德巫盆地中部交德东南约4~5 km处。对理塘同震地表破裂的Riedel剪切分析结果指示,该破裂带主要由R剪切组成,以发育雁列状排列的挤压鼓包(Push- up)为主要特征,伴有少量R′剪切与T裂缝,缺少P型与X型剪切。其中R剪切占95%以上,其在藏坝段(北段)的优势方向为318°,德巫段(南段)为315°,整条地表破裂带的R剪切平均方向为316°。同时发现,此次地震形成的雁列状挤压鼓包主要以平缓的“弧形”为主,这与1981年道孚MS 6. 9地震和2010年玉树MS 7. 1地震地表破裂带中出现大量反“S”形挤压鼓包有所不同,推断与走滑断裂滑动速率密切相关。沿强滑动速率走滑断层地震破裂带的Riedel剪切发育会更为完善,挤压鼓包也更发育,易形成反“S”形,反之则以平缓的“弧形”为特征。综合分析认为,1948年理塘同震地表破裂带的展布主要受藏坝盆地与德巫盆地控制,而且藏坝段(北段)与德巫段(南段)的R剪切方向存在偏差,这可能与两个拉分盆地的发育程度有关。  相似文献   

The Relationship between Deterministic and Ensemble Mean Forecast Errors Revealed by Global and Local Attractor Radii     

Jie FENG  Jianping LI  Jing ZHANG  Deqiang LIU  Ruiqiang DING 《大气科学进展》2019,36(3):271-278

It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2~(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases.  相似文献   

基于热力图数据的杭州商业综合体活力影响因素分析     

张小东  韩昊英  舒贤帆 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(11):1745-1754

为了防止商业综合体建设过剩,形成商业综合体之间的恶性竞争。本文基于微信易出行插件里面的城市热力图数据,以杭州市5个商业综合体为例,获取可以量化的热力值数据,对不同类型的商业综合体活力影响因素进行对比分析研究。研究发现：① 城市商业综合体布局密度、周边用地用途、销售模式、内部功能布局以及内部空间活力5个要素对商业综合体活力的影响最明显;② 商业综合体的高密度布局对其活力存在抑制作用,通过对比各个服务半径内的商业综合体的活力变化,发现商业综合体合理的服务半径应该大于1.0 km。商业综合体周边的居住用地、广场和公园用地对其活力具有增强作用,办公用地对商业综合体活力的影响较弱;③ 针对不同消费对象制定的不同销售模式,也会对商业综合体活力变化产生显著影响;④ 在公共活动空间相对缺乏的区域内,以零售为主且兼具城市公共活动空间的商业综合体比以主力店为主的商业综合体的活力更高,空间利用率越高的商业综合体活力也越高,商业综合体承担部分城市公共活动空间的职能对商业综合体的活力起到了提升作用。  相似文献   

断裂带首波研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

杨微 《地震工程学报》2019,41(6):1407-1418

断裂带首波是沿着存在物性差异界面传播的一种地震折射波,在传播过程中携带了断裂带的重要信息,对分析和研究断裂带以及附近区域的精细结构提供了一种新的分析方法。本文主要阐述断裂带首波的产生原理、波形特征、识别及分析方法等,介绍目前国际上识别及利用断裂带首波开展断裂带特征方面的研究现状,并针对地震危险区域存在物性差异的断裂带,提出可结合密集台阵观测技术,利用断裂带首波进行断裂带精细结构探测及其变化监测研究,提高潜在孕震环境及发生机理的认识水平。  相似文献   

GEODETIC AND TELESEISMIC CONSTRAINTS ON SLIP DISTRIBUTION OF 2015 M_W6.4 PISHAN EARTHQUAKE          下载免费PDF全文

CHEN Yun-guo  HE Ping  DING Kai-hua  LI Shui-ping  WANG Qi 《地震地质》2019,41(1):137-149

On July 3^rd, 2015, a M_W6.4 earthquake occurred on Pishan County, Xinjiang, located in the front of western Kunlun thrust belt, which is the largest earthquake(M_W6.0~7.0)in the past 40 years in this region. In this study, we collected both the near-filed geodetic coseismic deformation observations including 4 GPS sites and one high-resolution ALOS-2 InSAR imagery, and far-field teleseismic P waveforms from 25 stations provided by IRIS/USGS, to invert the fault parameters(strike and dip)and coseismic rupture model of 2015 M_W6.4 Pishan earthquake. Using the finite fault theory, a non-linear simulated annealing algorithm was employed to resolve our joint inversion problem. The strike (120°~130°) and dip angle(35°~40°)of optimal models are different from that of some previous studies, and the dip change is strongly constrained by combined data than that of strike. In fixing the geometric parameters of optimal fault model, we also considered data weight(5)(geodetic data/teleseismic P waveforms)and constrained weight from moment and smooth factor(2.5). Clearly, our results indicate that the slip distribution mainly concentrates in the depth range from 9 to 16km and a length range of 20km along the strike direction, which is similar to the spatial distribution of the relocated aftershocks. The maximum slip is~95cm. The seismic moment release is 5.45×10¹⁸N·m, corresponding to M_W6.42. Compared with the single data set, geodetic data or teleseismic waveform, our joint inversion model could simultaneously constrain the seismic moment and slip distribution well, thus avoiding effectively a lower-resolution rupture distribution determined by teleseismic-only inversion and a bias released moment estimated by the geodetic-only inversion. Importantly, we should consider both the near-field geodetic data and far-field teleseismic data in retrieving the rupture model for accurately describing the seismogenic structure of active fault in western Kunlun region.  相似文献   

THE ACTIVITY OF WESTERN LISHAN FAULT SINCE THE LATE PLEISTOCENE          下载免费PDF全文

XU Liang-xin  BIAN Ju-mei  HU Nan  TIAN Qin-hu  TIAN Wei-xin  DUAN Rui 《地震地质》2019,41(3):561-575

Along the northern piedmont of Mt. Lishan, the characteristics and locations of the active normal Lishan fault in west of Huaqing Pool provide important evidences for determining the seismotectonic environment, seismic stability evaluation of engineering in the eastern Weihe Basin. After reviewing the results from high-density resistivity method, seismic profile data, geological drillhole section and trenching in west of the Huaqing Pool, it is found that the strike of western normal Lishan Fault changes from EW direction at the eastern part to the direction of N60°W, and the fault consists of two branches, dipping NE with a high dip angle of~75°. The artificial shallow seismic profile data reveals that the attitude of strata near Lishan Fault mainly dips to south, which is presumed to be related to the southward tilt movement of Mt. Lishan since the Cenozoic. The section of geological drillhole reveals that since the late middle Pleistocene, the displacement of the paleo-soil layer S₂ is about 10m. And the maximum displacement of western Lishan Fault recorded in the paleo-soil layer S₁ reaches 7.8m since the late Pleistocene. In addition, evidences from trench profile show that the western Lishan Fault was active at least 3 times since Malan loess deposition with ¹⁴ C dating age(32 170±530)Cal a BP. The multiple activities of the Lishan Fault result in a total displacement about 3.0m in the Malan loess layer L₁. The latest activity of the western Lishan Fault produced a displacement of about 0.9m in the early Holocene loess layer L₀((8 630±20)Cal a BP)and caused obvious tensile cracks in the Holocene dark leoss layer S₀((4 390±20)Cal a BP). Briefly, we have obtained a vertical movement rate of about 0.11~0.19mm/a since the Holocene((8 630±20)Cal a BP)in the western extension of the Lishan Fault, the recurrence interval of earthquakes on the fault is about(10.7±0.5)ka, and the co-seismic surface rupture in a single event is inferred to be about 0.9m.  相似文献   

走滑断层地震地表破裂带分布影响因素数值模拟研究——以1973年炉霍M_S7.6地震为例          下载免费PDF全文

李红  邓志辉  陈连旺  周庆  冉洪流  邢成起 《地球物理学报》2019,62(8):2871-2884

地震后在断层两侧的强变形与破裂带是地震灾害最严重的区域.为系统、定量研究同震地表变形带特征及其影响因素，本研究建立了走滑断层的三维有限元模型，分别探讨了断层位错量、断层倾角、错动方式、上覆松散层厚度、沉积层土性等因素的影响规律.模拟结果显示：走滑断层同震地表变形表现为以断层为中心的近似对称单峰分布，强地表变形集中在断层两侧各50 m宽度范围，地表变形量峰值随位错量增加而增大，破裂带宽度也随位错量增加而增大，但增量逐渐减小，并趋于一个渐近值；断层倾角对地表变形与破裂带宽度影响表现为随倾角减小变形量峰值点向上盘小距离偏移；走滑兼正断位错引起的变形量峰值最大，但地表破裂带宽度最小，走滑兼逆断引起的变形量峰值最小，但地表破裂带宽度最大，直立纯走滑断层的两参量都居中；走滑断层地表变形量峰值随上覆松散层厚度增大而减小，但随厚度减小的速率逐渐变小，松散层厚度从5 m增加到20 m时，破裂带宽度随厚度增加而缓慢增加，但自厚度大于20 m时，破裂带宽度开始随厚度增加而逐渐下降；当不同土性覆盖层（粗砂、粉砂、黏土）厚度相同时，地震引起的地表变形量峰值自粗砂、粉砂、黏土逐次增大，当粗砂厚度为60 m以上时，3.6 m的同震水平位错已不能形成地表破裂，而粉砂的厚度为70 m以上，黏土的厚度则为75 m以上.  相似文献   

汶川M_W7.9地震起始破裂断层几何结构          下载免费PDF全文

宫猛  徐锡伟  李康 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1224-1234

本文收集使用紫坪铺水库台网记录到的汶川地震主震P波波形资料,利用P波反投影叠加法获取了2008年5月12日汶川M_W7.9地震起始破裂的时空演化过程.通过分析本次大地震起始破裂阶段(0～1s)破裂点在三维空间内的分布特征,确定了本次大地震起始破裂位置及起始破裂断层几何结构模型.得到以下结果:汶川地震起始破裂点位于31.013±0.002°N、103.392±0.002°E,震源深度为8.2±0.4km,发震时刻为2008年5月12日14∶27∶58.80±0.4.汶川地震起始破裂的最佳断层面走向为NE48°,倾向NW35°,起始阶段破裂的深度范围为地下7.5～9km.  相似文献   

港湾中海啸流的模拟及其时空演变特征对输入条件不确定性的响应分析          下载免费PDF全文

王培涛  闪迪  侯京明  王岗  高义  任智源  范婷婷  王宗辰  王君成 《地球物理学报》2018,61(4):1325-1340

一直以来，海啸波特征作为表征海啸潜在破坏性的参数指标得到了广泛应用，特别是针对近场极端海啸事件造成的灾害来说，这种表征具有较好的适用性.然而总结分析历史海啸事件造成的损失发现：在远场近岸及港湾系统中，海啸诱导的强流却是造成损失的主要原因.陆架或港湾振荡导致海啸波幅快速升降诱发强流，可能促使港工设施受到威胁及损害，进而对海啸预警服务及海事应急管理提出了新的挑战.因此，全面理解与评估海啸在港湾中诱发的灾害特征，探索港湾中海啸流的数值模拟方法，发展针对港湾尺度的海啸预警服务指导产品尤为迫切.受限于海啸流验证数据的缺乏及准确模拟海啸流技术方法的诸多不确定性，大部分海啸数值模拟研究工作主要是针对水位特征的研究及验证，可能导致对港湾中海啸灾害危险性认识的曲解与低估.本研究基于非线性浅水方程，针对夏威夷群岛三个典型港湾建立了精细化海啸数值模型（空间分辨率达到10 m），并联合有限断层破裂模型计算分析了日本东北地震海啸在三个港湾及其邻近区域的海啸特征，波、流计算结果与实测结果吻合较好，精细化的海啸港湾模型模拟结果可信.模拟发现港湾中较小的波幅，同样可以产生强流.综合分析日本东北地震海啸波、流特征对输入条件不确定性的响应结果发现：港湾中海啸波-流能量的空间分布特征差异较大，这与港湾系统中海啸波的驻波特性相关；相比海啸波幅空间特征，海啸流特征具有更强的空间敏感性；海啸流时空分布特征对输入条件的不确定性响应比海啸波幅对这些不确定性的响应更强，海啸流的模拟与预报更有挑战性；不确定性对海啸流计算精度的影响会进一步传导放大港湾海啸流危险性的评估及对港工设施产生的应力作用的误差，合理的输入条件对海啸流的精确模拟至关重要.最后，希望通过本文的研究可以从海啸波-流特征角度更加全面认识近岸海啸灾害特征，拓展海啸预警服务的广度与深度，从而为灾害应急管理部门提供更加科学合理的辅助决策产品.  相似文献   

A NEW FINDING OF SURFACE RUPTURE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1936 LINGSHAN M6(3/4) EARTHQUAKE,GUANGXI, CHINA          下载免费PDF全文

LI Xi-guang  LI Bing-su  PAN Li-li  NIE Guan-jun  WU Jiao-bing  LU Jun-hong  YAN Xiao-min  LI Zhi-yong 《地震地质》2017,39(4):689-698

On April 1, 1936, an M6(3/4) earthquake occurred on the Fangcheng-lingshan Fault. This event is the biggest historical earthquake on the coastal seismic zone, South China ever. But so far, no any findings about the surface rupture of this event have been reported. This paper is the first to find several intact surface rupture zones associated with the 1936 Lingshan seismic event, in the areas of Gaotang, Jiaogengping etc. on the northeast segment of the Fangcheng-Lingshan Fault. According to the field work, the surface rupture stretches to 10km and distributes along NE direction in front of Luoyang Mountain, represented by earthquake scarp, extensional fracture, dextrally faulted gully and river system etc. The characteristics of surface ruptures and faulted landforms indicate that the surface rupture is of normal-dextral strike slip faulting. The trenching on this fault exposed that at least three seismic events have been recorded, including two historical earthquake events and the latest one is the 1936 Lingshan M6(3/4) earthquake. These surface rupture zones are the key to the detection of seismogenic structure and the re-estimate of magnitude of this event. The new finding of these surface rupture zones would be particularly significant for the detection of the seismogenic structure of Lingshan M6(3/4) earthquake.  相似文献